It's 10:49, and I am fading fast...
But I couldn't go to sleep without commenting on how the California "projections" are going. It was called early for Clinton - when she had a 57-32% lead or so. It's now 53%-37%.
When I first looked at the County by County reporting, Obama was winning only Marin and 3 other couties. Clinton was winning in San Francisco. San Francisco is now showing Obama winning 52%-44%. The trend I'm seeing - and I know it's the trend I want to see, so I'm a biased - is that as the % of precincts reporting increases, Clinton's lead decreases. And he's winning 8 counties.
Also of note - Edwards is taking 8% state wide. I believe that more Edwards voters would vote for Obama than Clinton. I still don't understand why he dropped out.
I had some good conversation with Ted tonight around all of this. I like what Obama said tonight in his speech to his supporters - this election is about looking forward and not backwards. And when I look back on the Bill Clinton years, they look great, but that is mostly because they are sandwiched between some disastrous Bush years. The Republican Echo Chamber has fallen silent about Hillary, largely, I think, because they would much rather run against Hillary than Obama. And the people with power, the King (or Queen) makers would also much rather have another Clinton in the White House than Obama (or God forbid Edwards) if it has to be a Democrat.
If Hillary wins the nomination, that now quiet Republican Echo Chamber will crank up to a roar swifter than the swift boaters and it will be brutal - every single Bill Clinton scandal, real or perceived or concocted - from Vince Foster to Whitewater to Monica to renting out the Lincoln bedroom to shady Chinese donations - will be everywhere again. Plus there will be a dozen or so new "scandals."
If it's Clinton v. McCain, I believe McCain will win. If it's Obama v. McCain (or any Republican), Obama will win. The only Republican I think Hillary can beat is Romney. And Romney is bleeding tonight.
I can't believe that the Indian Gaming measures are winning and the Community College measure is failing.
Oh - also, I voted Yes on the Community College measure and no on everything else, with one exception - I voted Yes on 96 - one of the four Indian Gaming measures. Just as a goof - I wanted to see what would happen if one of those measures passed but not the rest.
Anyway - I will post a prediction for California - by the time I wake up, or by lunch time or so, Clinton's lead in CA will be 10% or less and she will have a slight lead in delegates.
When I first looked at the County by County reporting, Obama was winning only Marin and 3 other couties. Clinton was winning in San Francisco. San Francisco is now showing Obama winning 52%-44%. The trend I'm seeing - and I know it's the trend I want to see, so I'm a biased - is that as the % of precincts reporting increases, Clinton's lead decreases. And he's winning 8 counties.
Also of note - Edwards is taking 8% state wide. I believe that more Edwards voters would vote for Obama than Clinton. I still don't understand why he dropped out.
I had some good conversation with Ted tonight around all of this. I like what Obama said tonight in his speech to his supporters - this election is about looking forward and not backwards. And when I look back on the Bill Clinton years, they look great, but that is mostly because they are sandwiched between some disastrous Bush years. The Republican Echo Chamber has fallen silent about Hillary, largely, I think, because they would much rather run against Hillary than Obama. And the people with power, the King (or Queen) makers would also much rather have another Clinton in the White House than Obama (or God forbid Edwards) if it has to be a Democrat.
If Hillary wins the nomination, that now quiet Republican Echo Chamber will crank up to a roar swifter than the swift boaters and it will be brutal - every single Bill Clinton scandal, real or perceived or concocted - from Vince Foster to Whitewater to Monica to renting out the Lincoln bedroom to shady Chinese donations - will be everywhere again. Plus there will be a dozen or so new "scandals."
If it's Clinton v. McCain, I believe McCain will win. If it's Obama v. McCain (or any Republican), Obama will win. The only Republican I think Hillary can beat is Romney. And Romney is bleeding tonight.
I can't believe that the Indian Gaming measures are winning and the Community College measure is failing.
Oh - also, I voted Yes on the Community College measure and no on everything else, with one exception - I voted Yes on 96 - one of the four Indian Gaming measures. Just as a goof - I wanted to see what would happen if one of those measures passed but not the rest.
Anyway - I will post a prediction for California - by the time I wake up, or by lunch time or so, Clinton's lead in CA will be 10% or less and she will have a slight lead in delegates.
posted by Eric Soderstrom at 10:47 PM
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